I find the monthly BTC chart easiest to analyze, and probably the most important for me at the moment. Are we moving toward an ATH or back towards 29K where further lows are very possible? This is a critical price point for BTC .
I have a problem with the upper EW structure where Wave 3 is complete at the May ATH . I do not see a proper 5 wave structure within that Wave 3. So, I am in the camp that we are still in Monthly Wave 3. I think this is consistent with a widespread opinion that the cycle didn’t complete as expected.
Moving to the lower chart, I see 3 clear sub waves within the larger Monthly 3 Wave. Waves 3-4 and 4-5 will complete Monthly Wave 3. The latest move off the bottom left me sensing that Wave 4 was complete. I wont go into the details, but the latest move off the bottom was a significant upward pulse against the weekly and daily downtrends. I started thinking big gains, and have redeployed about 50% of my assets. That is a trigger for me because my emotional side is usually 99.99% wrong. Those emotions make me nervous so I want to be sure of my decision.
The lower chart Monthly Wave 3 sub wave 4 (leg 4 in light blue) is an assumption. I’ve learned to challenge my assumptions, and assume that I’m seeing what I want to see. My process is to try and prove myself wrong. Well the light blue leg 4 drawn above that essentially claims the bottom of the correction is wrong in my opinion. Leg 4 correction is usually an ABC corrective pattern. 1 line doesnt cut it. I think what the monthly chart has shown us is the A leg and the start of the B leg. There is no way to draw an ABC pattern on the monthly unless we assume the move off the current bottom is the start of the B leg. How high will the B leg go and how long will it last? I’m not sure, but I’m convinced that we will retrace heavily from this B leg at some point in order to finish the C leg and sub Wave 4 of the Monthly Leg 4.
I’ll be looking for an exit trigger. There was heavy resistance at 40K. If BTC can not find daily support at that level, I will probably take out my trade and reevaluate.