Gold looks weak on Hourly 4 basis, potential Selling leg ahead for FX:XAUUSD by goldenBear88

Gold’s general commentary: The Price-action was above the #1,827.80 mark (regarding Friday’s session) but not gaining more momentum as the DX found the Support. I can’t speculate how far or downwards Price-action can go fueled by Fed news, only follow it Technically. And Technically, a few point Stop-loss will be acceptable risk at the moment, but Buying on such Selling bias is not advisable. As is evident on Gold lately and on most asset classes, Fed and Central banks are strongly manipulating Prices, Gold especially. Trend is changing almost on Daily basis as correlating assets are going in different directions, adding strong Volatility on Gold market. Fed is silently evading to talk about further tapering, and evident “transitory Inflation” is surely not an honest response of what’s truly happening behind the curtains. Gold is approaching again the Higher Low trendline of the Daily chart’s Descending Channel (on the aftermath on one of the strongest Intra-day rises since late May throughout Friday’s session), slightly above my Support zone which is an ideal Selling point. As discussed, unless #1,820.80 breaks, Price-action within is Bearish and suitable only for Sellers. Gold will still remain on Buying pressure as long as Bond Yields are struggling to make Bullish comeback and DX without a Short-term recovery.

Technical analysis: The Lower High trendline (priced at #1,824.80) and as the #1,803.80 – #1,808.80 Support zone practices strong durability, Gold turned Neutral again on Hourly 4 chart, but on Bearish gradient. If there wasn’t Fed minutes, last one would be really flat Trading week, without any major changes. With PCE (main catalyst for the last session) reported Lower than the actual number, Gold was Trading under Selling pressure which is no cause for alarm. The main driver behind it is of course the pullback on DX (which still didn’t found the Support) and mixed values on Bond Yields, as the markets are trying to get back on it’s current “normal” Volumes. Gold will get out of this Neutral (Intra-week) zone if the #1,803.80 Support breaks, or #1,820.80 Resistance on the other hand. Right now this is way below the Daily chart’s #MA50, which validates Selling sequence even more, but I’ve stated before, I’d prefer more the secure #1,803.80 breakout.

Fundamental analysis: Gold erased last week’s gains and was marginally near the #1,835.80 strong Resistance on the Hourly 4 chart as, despite the decline on Bond Yields (my main marker currently), Gold engaged the decline on Lower than expected PCE report, DX was soaring (with possible correction ahead) on a positive U.S. Trade deal environment and Fed aftermath. All those pointers were indicating strong Buying ahead, but as is the practice since start of the Trading Month, Volatility kicked in and reversed the Price-action below #MA50 on Daily chart . Technically, Daily chart is Neutral as I still don’t see further uptrend signs, only Selling sustainability. Current Price-action is suitable for Scalpers only as Gold was Trading within #10-point variance almost all session long. However, there is decent possibility for #15 Intra-day takedown as Wall Street opening Bell approaches. If that’s the case, I will carefully wait for opportunity to activate and add more Selling orders. The Medium-term charts Daily and Weekly still point to a Lower Price-action which reveals underlying Bearish Long-term trend and this is why I will keep Selling every rise on the longer run. A relative risk factor is off the markets and that’s why DX should rise (on greater than expected ISM reading later on today) and add more Selling pressure on Gold . Also, as long as Bond Yields are Trading near Support zone and break the Triangle downwards, their constant Low’w and Channel Down will be intact and will progressively apply Buying pressure on Gold , since Bond Yields attract risk seeking capital from Gold . I do expect however the currency speculators to push DX as High as they can ahead of next week’s Fundamental events in order to secure a more comfortable Selling entry in late session near the weekend break. I still give more probabilities to the downside with #1,785.80 as a first Target and #1,752.80 in extension. I am expecting #100 point takedown once Fundamental dust settles.

My position: I have engaged Selling order (#1,808.80 entry point) with #1,785.80 Target, as I give more probabilities to the downside. I will keep utilizing strict Risk management, and moving my breakeven Stop-loss in Profits if happens. If ISM has different outcome than expected, I will close my order near breakeven gradually.

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